Samsung Electronics is heading into what analysts describe as its most extraordinary quarter on record, with a fresh report from KB Securities projecting first-quarter operating profit of approximately 40 trillion won — roughly $27.5 billion — a sixfold increase compared with the same period a year ago and a near-doubling from the record 20.1 trillion won posted in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The forecast, published March 12 by Kim Dong-won, head of research at KB Securities, also projects that Samsung’s memory division alone will post 38 trillion won in operating profit for the quarter — an eleven-fold increase year-on-year that would, by itself, surpass the entire memory business’s profit for all of 2025. KB simultaneously raised its target price for Samsung shares from 240,000 won to 320,000 won.

The price acceleration is stark. According to KB Securities, DRAM prices rose 51% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026 while NAND flash prices climbed 48% — both significantly faster than the 40% and 25% respective increases recorded in Q4 2025. Samsung’s full-year 2026 operating profit is projected at 123 trillion won by KB Securities, not the 180 trillion won that has circulated in some reports; the higher figure remains unverified by major brokerages.

Artificial Intelligence Is the Engine Driving Everything

The proximate cause of the memory supercycle is the insatiable appetite of AI data centers for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), server DRAM, and enterprise SSDs. All three of the world’s major memory producers — Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron — have systematically reallocated manufacturing capacity away from consumer-grade chips toward the far more lucrative AI server segment. HBM production alone consumes roughly three times the wafer capacity of standard DRAM, according to TrendForce, creating cascading shortages across every other product category.

Samsung is also on track to begin commercial deliveries of its next-generation HBM4 product — featuring 11.7 Gbps performance — to major customers including Nvidia and Google during this quarter, a milestone that had previously been in doubt. Analysts at CLSA expect Samsung’s total HBM shipments to triple in 2026 as HBM4 enters full production. SK Hynix, for its part, has described its HBM, DRAM, and NAND capacity as “essentially sold out” for the year.

PC and Smartphone Makers Bear the Cost

The memory boom has an acute downside for companies further down the supply chain. As manufacturers race to secure components for AI infrastructure, conventional memory for laptops, desktops, and mobile phones has become scarce and expensive. Samsung co-CEO TM Roh acknowledged at CES 2026 in January that higher consumer electronics prices are “inevitable,” and said the company would do what it could to limit the impact — without ruling out price increases for smartphones, home appliances, or televisions.

Research firm Gartner projects that the combined cost surge will drive worldwide PC shipments down by approximately 10% in 2026, with smartphone shipments falling around 8%. Separately, DB Securities analyst Seo Seung-yeon told Yonhap News that revenue in Samsung’s own mobile business is likely to decline this year as a direct result of the higher component costs — an unusual situation in which Samsung’s chip division profits at the expense of its own handset division.

HP has publicly disclosed that memory now accounts for roughly 35% of the cost of its PCs, doubling its share from a year ago. Micron, which in late 2025 wound down its Crucial consumer brand, has warned that memory supply is expected to meet only half to two-thirds of demand from several key customers in the medium term. Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said he expects markets to remain tight past 2026.

No Near-Term Relief in Sight

Industry analysts see few signs of the cycle turning in the near future. TrendForce analyst Avril Wu has noted that Samsung, with its large concentration of conventional DRAM capacity, stands to gain relatively more from the current price upcycle than its rivals. Analysts do not expect the typical boom-bust correction pattern that characterized earlier memory cycles, citing the structural shift toward AI infrastructure as a multi-year demand driver. New Samsung production capacity at its Pyeongtaek facility is not expected to come online until 2028.

IDC warned in late 2025 that the shortage is “unprecedented” and could have knock-on effects for hardware makers and end users that may persist well into 2027. For consumers, the message is straightforward: the devices they rely on are becoming more expensive, and no relief is imminent. The beneficiaries, for now, remain the companies that make the chips those devices depend on.